Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts

Summary#

The Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act would create a program led by the Under Secretary (working with the U.S. weather enterprise and colleges) to improve forecasts, warnings, and information about atmospheric rivers. The program would develop forecast skill measures; build an atmospheric river forecast system inside a unified forecast system; improve modeling for precipitation and complex terrain, including snow and hydrologic components; test new observations and data-assimilation methods; use artificial intelligence and machine learning where helpful; and include social, behavioral, risk, communication, and economic science. The program would support research-to-operations testbeds, collect voluntary data about hazardous weather or water events, and study better ways to communicate atmospheric river hazards and benefits.

The bill would require the Under Secretary to acquire and sustain crewed and uncrewed aircraft and scientific equipment each year from November 1 through March 31 for atmospheric river reconnaissance and related missions, to make aircraft data available for research and operations, and to maintain at least one atmospheric river observatory in all West Coast States (including Alaska). The Under Secretary must also develop a public program plan with timelines, resources, partnerships, and technology transfer activities and submit it to relevant congressional committees within 270 days of enactment.

What it means for you#

• A new federal program would focus on better forecasts of heavy rain, snow, winds, and inland penetration of atmospheric rivers.
• Forecast work could include new models, more observations (radar, aircraft, satellites, buoys, soil moisture, streamflow and reservoir data), improved data handling, and machine learning tools.
• The program would run seasonal aircraft reconnaissance (Nov 1–Mar 31) and create at least one observatory for West Coast states, with data stewarded to FAIR and CARE principles and federal records rules.
• The agency would study and develop clearer ways to communicate atmospheric river intensity and impacts, and collect information from communities about preparedness and responses.
• A program plan must be published and sent to Congress within 270 days after the law is enacted.

Expenses#

No publicly available information.

Proponents' View#

The bill text states the program is intended to reduce loss of life, property damage, and economic losses from atmospheric rivers by improving lead time, accuracy, and dissemination of forecasts and warnings. It emphasizes improving research-to-operations transitions, testing new observations and models, expanding reconnaissance capabilities, and improving hazard communication and social-science integration.

Opponents' View#

No publicly available information.